January inflation cools to 2.4%, but tariff-related pressure remains a market risk
The January CPI slowed to 2.4% year over year, below December’s pace, but economists warn policy-driven price pressures could keep the Fed cautious.
U.S. inflation eased in January, adding to evidence that price pressures are cooling — but investors may not get an immediate policy pivot from the Federal Reserve.
## What happened
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased **2.4% year over year** in January, down from **2.7%** in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Economists cited broad-based deceleration across several staples (including food and gasoline), while noting certain categories remain elevated — including **electricity** and **home heating**.
## Why it matters for markets
A softer inflation print can support equities by:
- reducing pressure for additional rate hikes,
- improving expectations for eventual cuts,
- lowering discount rates used in valuation.
However, analysts cautioned that policy factors — particularly **tariffs** and **immigration-driven labor supply constraints** — could keep inflation sticky in some areas. That uncertainty may keep the Fed in a **wait-and-see** stance rather than accelerating rate cuts.
## Key details investors are watching
- The report suggests inflation is moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target, but not there yet.
- Gasoline prices were lower on both a monthly and annual basis.
- Some necessities remained well above target, with utility gas service cited as up around 10% annually.
## What to watch next
- Upcoming inflation releases (core CPI and services inflation trends)
- Fed communications on the path of rates
- Policy developments around tariffs, which could re-ignite goods inflation
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Source: CNBC (link below)
Source: CNBC